Vegas Loop’s Passenger Capacity Challenges Traditional Subway Assumptions

Source: https://x.com/boringcompany/status/1986967873974304955?s=20

The Boring Company has released new data showing that the Las Vegas Convention Center (LVCC) Loop is moving passengers at levels comparable to the median U.S. subway or light rail system—despite operating in narrower tunnels and using small electric vehicles rather than large trains. For cities like Nashville exploring the future of rapid transit, the findings shed light on how emerging technologies could deliver high-capacity mobility at a lower cost and with greater flexibility.

A New Kind of High-Capacity Transit

The LVCC Loop is a grade-separated public transit system where riders enter stations on foot, pay a fare (or ride free during conventions), and travel directly to their destinations in Tesla vehicles operating through dedicated tunnels. Though the system uses cars, it functions much like rail: controlled access, fixed guideway, stations instead of curbs, and zero interaction with street traffic.

The system is already achieving 2,400 passengers per hour per direction (pphpd) with four-passenger vehicles dispatching every six seconds. According to national transit data, the median operating capacity for U.S. urban rail systems is also 2,400 pphpd, meaning Loop is now matching what many mid-sized light rail, streetcar, automated people-mover, and hybrid-rail systems deliver.

The 25th percentile sits at 900 pphpd, while only the largest systems—about 8 percent—reach 9,600 pphpd. For most U.S. cities where peak demand is modest, Loop appears to fall well within the performance band needed for effective rapid transit.

Why Capacity Is Only Part of the Story

The Boring Company’s analysis emphasizes that focusing solely on vehicle size can obscure more important performance factors. Average urban rail speeds in the United States hover around 20 mph, slowed by dwell times and frequent stops. In contrast, Loop trips are express and can reach average speeds near 50 mph, significantly shortening door-to-door travel times.

Wait times also differ. During CES at the LVCC, average Loop waits were about 15 seconds, compared with typical subway waits ranging from 2 to 17 minutes, with a median of around 10 minutes during peak periods.

These speed and frequency advantages, combined with point-to-point routing, allow a dense network of stations without sacrificing throughput—something difficult for traditional rail systems to replicate.

Lower Costs Expand the Transit Market

Cost remains one of the strongest arguments for expanding Loop technology. U.S. transit construction is among the most expensive in the world, particularly for tunneled rail. Heavy rail systems in the U.S. with high tunnel percentages often exceed $1.2 billion per mile. Even excluding extraordinary New York City costs, the national average is approximately $511 million per mile.

By comparison, the LVCC Loop was built for $62 million per mile, including two surface stations and one underground station. A competing automated people mover bid was reportedly more than four times the Loop proposal. Lower per-mile costs dramatically increase the number of cities that can realistically pursue grade-separated transit.

Flexible Vehicles, Expandable Capacity

While the LVCC Loop currently uses small electric cars, the tunnels are designed to accommodate 8–16 passenger electric shuttles without modification. At headways of two to three seconds, those larger vehicles could move 9,600 to 28,000 passengers per hour per direction—matching or exceeding many heavy-rail systems.

For the full Las Vegas system, The Boring Company has targeted a long-term capacity of 57,000 passengers per hour.

Safety, Accessibility, and Reliability

Loop tunnels comply with NFPA-130, the national safety standard for fixed-guideway transit. Stations are spaced less than 2,500 feet apart, meeting emergency-egress requirements without the need for additional exits between stations. Each tunnel provides dedicated walkway clearance for evacuation, dual ventilation fans capable of moving 400,000 cubic feet of air per minute, and embedded water-supply piping for fire suppression. These systems support controlled evacuation, smoke management, and efficient emergency response.

The closed-access design also enhances personal security. Only authorized transit vehicles and riders can enter stations and tunnels, and boarding occurs in monitored, enclosed areas—not on exposed platform edges. This design reduces many of the risks seen in traditional subway systems, where open platforms and unrestricted public access have contributed to incidents involving physical attacks, rider harassment, and people being pushed or falling onto tracks. By limiting access points and operating smaller vehicles with supervised boarding, Loop offers passengers a safer and more controlled environment.

All Loop stations are ADA compliant, providing step-free access and meeting federal requirements for accessible public transportation.

Energy Efficiency and Operating Costs

Surprisingly, energy-use comparisons show that a Tesla Model Y carrying just two passengers matches the energy efficiency of the New York City Subway on a watt-hours-per-passenger-mile basis. Against the national averages for light rail and many bus systems, Loop vehicles perform even better. Maintenance costs per vehicle mile also compare favorably with national averages for rail vehicles.

What This Means for Nashville

Nashville continues to experience rapid growth, with increasing pressure on streets, interstates, and transit corridors. A system that moves passengers quickly, reliably, and at lower cost could offer a new path to grade-separated mobility without the financial and engineering hurdles of full subway construction.

While questions remain about long-term operations and how a larger regional Loop network would integrate with other modes, the Las Vegas data demonstrates that high-capacity, high-frequency transit does not require traditional trains to succeed. For mid-sized and emerging metro areas, Loop’s speed, safety, cost efficiency, and potential passenger volume may offer an attractive complement to future infrastructure planning.